About Me

I forecast regularly for various organizations: Samotsvety, Swift Centre, Metaculus (as a Pro Forecaster), and Good Judgment (as a Superforecaster). I also teach people to become better forecasters, both individually and in groups.

My recent projects include: consulting for an AI company about the consequences of releasing its LLM, helping a vaccine company model the odds of there being a pandemic over the next 20 years, and advising a start-up on what bets to place on prediction markets. I have also written various articles about forecasting.

Some of the most frequent topics I forecast are:
- Geopolitical Events
- Economic Trends
- Epidemics
- Election Results

Find more information on my LinkedIn.